Your opinion vs others

This is the dilemma

Confidence and conviction are celebrated attributes in the Startup industry.

But why should you ever hold your own opinion?

On nearly every topic there’s someone in the World who knows more about it than you do. The best approach is to find more informed people and copy them.

This, apparently, is the dilemma resulting from Bayesian Statistical Theory.

Don’t take my word for it — listen to Tyler Cowen (of Marginal Revolution fame) with Shane Parrish on the Knowledge Project podcast.

It’s a great listen. And, yes, I appreciate the irony in giving you my opinion to listen to someone else’s opinion.

Thinking About Thinking: My Interview with Tyler Cowen

So if others know better, how do you judge the best?

This is the key but it’s also the paradox — if you don’t know the right answer to start with it’s very difficult to assess who is the best judge.

Tyler draws an important conclusion from this. Even if we don’t know who has the most understanding of a subject, we should still be a lot less confident of our own opinions.

Keep an open mind.